Billy Cook is having a nice Arizona Fall League. Should we believe?
- Born: January 7, 1999
- B/T: Right/Right
- 6’1″, 200-lbs
- Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft from Pepperdine University
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
After being drafted in 2021, he started briefly at the Rookie-ball level, but he was already 22 as a college draftee, so they moved him to A-ball where he showed power, speed, and a healthy dose of strikeouts. By “healthy” I mean, of course, unhealthy.
In 2022 he moved to High A where he showed power, speed, and the same sickly level of strikeouts.
In 2023, and stop me if you heard this before, he showed power, speed and whaddya know? He cut his strikeout rate to 25%. Not bad, Billy!
In fact his first year he had a more than 4-to-1 ratio of strikeouts to walks, then in his second year he had a 4-to-1 ratio, then in this third year he had a 3-to-1 ratio. That means in Triple-A next year he will have a 2-to-1 ratio, and in the majors he will have a 1-to-1 ratio.
And if you believe in such linear development, you really need to read my book…
Monthly Splits
Monthly we can see that he had a really hot stretch in June. He had power everywhere but April, he had some speed every month and was a burner in the summer months, and he drew enough walks to keep his OBP out of poor territory most of the time.
Then in October he goes to the Arizona Fall League and…does exactly what he did all season long.
One thing we can say about Cook: He has power, he has speed, and boy will he strike out a lot to get there!
Handedness K% and BB%
AA (vs RH): 24%K and 7%BB. (vs LH): 27%K and 12%BB.
He does better against lefties, with close to a 2-to-1 ratio of Ks to walks compared with a more than 3-to-1 ratio against righties.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: Not on their Top 400
- Fantrax: Not on their Top 400
- RotoProspects: #489 on Top 500
- Toolshed Fantasy ($): Not on their Top 500
- PARSlist ($): 46.5 (413th-best minor league batter)
- PLIVE+: 92 (742nd-best minor league batter)
Warnings
The scouts are not impressed.
He was 24 at Double-A.
The strikeouts.
Conclusion
If you are in a standard scoring league, this is a guy who will give you HR, RBI, and SB numbers. The BAVG will suffer.
If you are in an OBP league, run. No, the other way, away from Billy Cook.
Where’s he going to play? Baltimore has so many good prospects, how will Cook push his way into the conversation? He’s played 1B, 2B and the corner outfield slots. Maybe that versatility will get him some playing time.
Or maybe this is the ideal candidate to trade to a team who could use some power and some speed, and won’t balk at a few strikeouts.