What will it take for Christian Scott to succeed as a starter for the Mets?
- Born: June 15, 1999
- B/T: Right/Right
- 6’4″, 215-lbs
- Drafted by the New York Mets in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft from University of Florida
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
Scott started his professional career at Rookie ball the year he was drafted, but that’s just three introductory innings, so let’s skip them. The spring after being drafted he did very well at A-ball. So they moved him to High-A, and there he settled back a bit, but still pitched decently.
This year he repeated High-A and it was light’s out, so they moved him to Double-A and he kept the lights out by pitching even better. Well, the skill numbers were better, the xFIP was up a bit, but you’d take a 2.46 xFIP, wouldn’t you? (and other sentences we never dreamed of writing when we were kids)
The monthly splits are great. It’s not as if a great start hid a mediocre finish. The K-BB% trend was exactly what you want to see.
Handedness K% and BB%
A+(vs RH): 33%K and 3%BB. (vs LH): 31%K and 6%BB.
AA (vs RH): 36%K and 2%BB. (vs LH): 30%K and 5%BB.
Ignoring the two innings at Single-A, we see that he did great against both righties and lefties. We also see that he does a little better against righties, and he did better at Double-A than he did at High-A. Progress!
- Rotowire: #321 on their Top 400
- Fantrax: Not on their Top 400
- RotoProspects: #164 on Top 500
- Toolshed Fantasy ($): #132 on Top 500
- PARSlist ($): 88.1 (Spec-SP #4)
- PLIVE+: 79 (61st-best SP)
On the one hand, he’s a 24-year-old at Double-A. On the other hand, he’s an example of how age is not as simple as looking at the calendar. If you look at Scott’s college career, it entirely is wrapped around the pandemic years. He simply didn’t get to pitch that much in college, and so his development is behind.
Also, when you see the guys who refuse to issue walks in the minors, but it isn’t accompanied by a dominant fastball, it can be a warning sign that by the time he gets to the majors and leaves it around the plate it will get hit. And he is becoming more of a flyball pitcher. It hasn’t manifested in a high HR rate yet, but that’s a danger.
Can’t fault the numbers other than wishing he was 22 instead of 24, but that’s out of his control.
He throws a decent mid-90s FB, but the shape of the fastball is not great. That’s another way of saying it lacks deception. Major league batters will key in on that.
He also has a nice slider that he commands very well (see the lack of walks).
It’s the changeup that will determine his fate. He lacks a good third offering right now, and if it doesn’t develop he will be a great reliever in the majors. If the changeup does develop, he can be a #4 or #5 type of pitcher, more command than dominance, but that can work if he controls his pitches well.
He’s done it well enough to dominant Double-A batters. Next year comes Triple-A, and if his changeup is still below average there, keep your expectations in check.