On May 24, 2023 (four days before I wrote this), FanGraphs published their New York Mets Top 37 Prospects. Where did Double-A outfielder Matt Rudick place? He didn’t. What?! Not even in the extra names section at the end? Nope, not even the extra names section at the end. They ranked future bullpen arms, but the guy who leads the Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies in HRs, OPS, RBI, and SB? Nope, not worth mentioning, nothing to see here….
- Born: July 2, 1998
- B/T: Left/Left
- 5’6″, 170-lbs
- Drafted by the New York Mets in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft from San Diego State University
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
His first professional season, as a 22-year-old out of college, saw him put up excellent OBP numbers and a fantastic batting eye while being a bit short on power, but with speed.
In 2022, where he mostly spent at High-A, he still gets on base, he still has a great batting eye, some speed, just not power.
In 2023, he’s been one of the best batters in the minor leagues. As noted in the introduction, he leads his team in power, in speed, in getting on base, basically he’s the star. And yes, he has power. His 7 HRs are two more than he had in his entire college career. So sure, if you’d mentally checked him out of the power column, you look at this year as an aberration. Well, you know how Binghamton is known for inflating everyone’s pow— wait, nobody else on that team is having their power inflated, so ignore my sarcasm.
Monthly Splits
Aha! Yes, let’s look at his monthly splits and for sure we will see a batter who got off to a big start and has sucked ever since.
Oh, wait, that’s not what happened, has it? He has a fantastic April, then took one look at his April and said, “Hold my beer” in May. I’m not seeing him slow down, do you?
Handedness K% and BB%
AA (vs RH): 13%K and 19%BB. (vs LH): 21%K and 13%BB.
I don’t see a weakness here, do you?
The Scouts
- Rotowire: Not on their Top 400
- Fantrax: Not on their Top 400
- RotoProspects: Not on Top 500
Warnings
He is universally ignored. If you are the kind of person who needs confirmation from authority before you can act, then I am giving you an order: stop reading.
OK, we got rid of them.
Conclusion
Not everyone has ignored him. If you subscribe to the PARSList Prospect Rankings, you’ll find him in the Top 20 of batters — simply because he is doing it on the field.
If you subscribe to Chris Clegg’s Dynasty Dugout, Rudick is the 356th overall prospect.
No, the real problem is here:
He’s too old, and he’s too short.
That’s it. He’s going to turn 25 on July 2nd, and he’s listed as 5’6″. So prospect guys turn up their noses.
Let’s tackle the height. I’ve heard in-person reports that say he doesn’t look 5’6″, and those things are notoriously inaccurate when tracking young athletes putting on weight or gaining height. Regardless, the knock against short batters is they won’t have power. But Rudick is showing power! If he hits doubles and home runs now, what’s to keep him from having a good career?
Jose Altuve enters the chat…
As for the age, well, he was almost 23 when he was drafted, so that’s what drafting college guys is like. Now two years later, he’s almost 25, but he’s almost in Triple-A, so it’s not as if he’s scuffed around the minor leagues for years.
Now to be fair, there is some excellent research published ($) this year on BaseballHQ that says if you are 24 or older in Double-A, you are riskier than someone 20 or younger. So first of all, yeah, I mean, of course that will be true. Always go for the younger bat if you can. On the other hand, riskier does’t mean impossible.
So while the earliest we could expect to see Rudick in the majors is at age 25 (or more likely 26), it says here that he will see the majors, he will get on base in the majors, and he will hit home runs in the majors.
Even if FanGraphs never heard of him.
But now you have.