There’s been some excitement in prospect circles about Zach Dezenzo. Should there be?
- Born: May 11, 2000
- B/T: Right/Right
- 6’4″, 220-lbs
- Drafted by the Houston Astros in the 2022 MLB June Amateur Draft from The Ohio State University
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
We see the reason for the excitement! After his first professional season where he put up average numbers and struck out too much, this year he’s been great, absolutely wonderful.
Is that power real? He has a hard-hit rate of 31.6% so far, so yes, he’s hitting the ball hard. So far, so good.
Monthly Splits
Let’s break out both 2022 and 2023 by month, as if it’s one continuous season.
Aug 2022: He starts out well, with OBP and power, some speed, some walks, but strikes out too much.
Sep 2022: Well, it was the end of a long season, so we can forgive the collapse of those numbers.
Apr 2023: That’s more like it: power, OBP, speed, walks, still strikes out too much but even that is improved.
May 2023: OBP is still great, helped by a strikeout rate falling almost in half! Decent walks, but power also falls in half. Seems as if he can never have a perfect month, doesn’t it?
Handedness K% and BB%
High A (vs RH): 20%K and 15%BB. (vs LH): 32%K and 5%BB.
This is not a good sign. He does great against right-handed pitchers, but he really struggles against lefties. OK, this is a small sample, and look at this:
Single-A (vs RH): 30% K and 12% BB. (vs LH): 37% K and 0% BB.
So last year he struck out a lot against righties and really struggled against lefties.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: Not on their Top 400
- Fantrax: Not on their Top 400
- RotoProspects: Not on Top 500
Warnings
We want to make sure his struggles against lefties isn’t a skill deficiency, not just small sample sizes that disappear as he develops his skills.
None of the scouts are on him yet.
Also, as it says in my book, if you are a corner infielder (check) in Asheville (check) and you are suddenly showing power (check), don’t drool just yet:
Conclusion
Dezenzo is having a great, great season. He’s hitting the ball hard, he’s getting good results from doing that.
But let’s wait until he gets to Double-A before we fully buy in. And let’s make sure he can hit lefties. And let’s make sure his May power slump doesn’t continue.
Get the idea? Keep him on your radar, but be cautious until we have more answers.