He’s succeeding at the highest minor league levels. What’s next for Darius Vines?
- Born: April 30, 1998
- B/T: Right/Right
- 6’1″, 190-lbs
- Drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft from California State University, Bakersfield
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
Drafted in 2019, Vines spends a little time that year in two Rookie-level leagues, where he puts up ordinary numbers. A welcome-to-the-pros-kid kind of 31 innings.
Skipping over 2020, as we often do in so many areas, he then proceeds to climb two levels every season. He starts 2021 in A ball, and he dominates in every way. Bumped to High-A he strikes out fewer, so his xFIP rises, but all in all, a good year.
He starts 2022 at Double-A, spends two-thirds of the season there and again puts up very good numbers. Bumped to Triple-A he slows down and puts up pedestrian numbers.
Betcha he starts 2023 at Triple-A and bumps his K rate while walking fewer guys.
Monthly Splits
His Double-A adventure followed this monthly pattern:
- APR: Ordinary numbers, ordinary results
- MAY: Total domination
- JUN: Strikeouts fell a bit, but still good
- JUL: Strikeouts up a tad, walks up too, still good
- AUG: Started the Triple-A transition, slowing down
- SEP: I’m tired, coach!
Handedness K% and BB%
AA (vs RH): 29%K and 7%BB. (vs LH): 28%K and 7%BB.
AAA (vs RH): 22%K and 10%BB. (vs LH): 18%K and 9%BB.
No splits here. He faces both righties and lefties and gets similar results at each level.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: on their Top 400
- Fantrax: #240 on their Top 400
- RotoProspects: #372 on Top 500
Warnings
At the higher levels his numbers are good, not great.
Let’s see him repeat Triple-A and make sure he can get that K rate into the mid-to-upper 20s.
Conclusion
With a four-pitch mix, Vines is a starting pitcher. His four-seam fastball is often used up on the zone, while his changeup breaks down, as does his slider. Both the change and the slider are good pitches, so while he’s not an ace profile, he is succeeding at the upper levels and should become a major league pitcher.
He likely starts 2023 at Triple-A and will be ready if injury creates an opening.