Tommy John Surgery has pushed back Max Meyer’s debut to probably 2024. What can we expect when he does return?
- Born: March 12, 1999
- B/T: Left/Right
- 6’0″, 196-lbs
- Drafted by the Miami Marlins in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft from University of Minnesota.
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
The Marlins drafted Meyer out of the University of Minnesota, and the next year started him in full season Double-A where he spent most of the year. Did quite well in his first pro exposure. He also pitched 10 innings at Triple-A that season and dominated with an 8.5-to-1 K-to-BB ratio.
He repeated Triple-A in 2022 and had another dominating season. In fact, he basically replicated his Double-A numbers, but he now did it at the highest major league level.
He also made his major league debut for six innings where he struck out six and walked only two.
Monthly Splits
A dominating April and a dominating June sandwiching a struggling May. Isn’t baseball great in its unpredictable nature?
July, between Triple-A and MLB, was quietly effective. He belongs in the majors.
Handedness K% and BB%
AAA (vs RH): 26%K and 8%BB. (vs LH): 30%K and 9%BB.
No splits here. He does well against both, and as long as he keeps the walks down he’s quite successful.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: #119 on their Top 400
- Fantrax: #77 on their Top 400
- RotoProspects: #187 on Top 500
Warnings
Well, other than the Tommy John Surgery, how did you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln? I mean, obviously that’s the big warning flag. Pitchers come back from TJS routinely, but it’s still a risk until it isn’t.
There are times when his command doesn’t help his game.
Conclusion
In college he had a dominating fastball, but in the pros it’s been more inconsistent. His slider is his best pitch, and now his changeup has improved to the point where it is a plus pitch. If he returns from TJS with his fastball back in plus territory, Meyer could be an ace.
Even without that, he will be a very good major league pitcher.
Once he is back.
Probably.
Likely.