Sometimes you have a great year, and sometimes you just need a do-over year. Meet Brady House, the 200th prospect profiled on this site.
- Born: June 4, 2003
- B/T: Right/Right
- 6’4″, 215-lbs
- Drafted by the Washington Nationals in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft from Winder-Barrow High School (Winder, GA).
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
After being taken 1.11 in the 2021 draft, he played Rookie ball for 16 games where he looked every bit the good swinging prospect people hoped he would be. Low strikeouts, high power, on base plenty.
So what do we make of 2022? OBP is fine, but power is awful (21.8% Hard Hit rate, which is about as poor as I’ve ever seen). He struck out too much, walk rate almost in half, what was going on?
Here’s what:
Monthly Splits
House was placed on the IL on May 4, returning on May 13, and then played his last game June 11. You can see the effect of the injury clearly on the Monthly Splits chart above. He did OK in April, getting on base a lot, while not striking out too much, and walking good enough. The power was low, but it often is in April.
Then he gets injured, and as often happens he comes back and is not right. All his numbers take a dive, he reaches June and it gets worse, and then whaddya know! He’s injured again.
Hint: He was injured in May too, we just didn’t know it at the time.
Handedness K% and BB%
A (vs RH): 32%K and 6%BB. (vs LH): 21%K and 21%BB.
It’s a small sample size against lefties, but that’s a nice sign. And yes, the strikeout rate against righties is high, but see above for the probable reason. His overall strikeout rate was 25% before he got injured.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: #77 on their Top 400
- Fantrax: #64 on their Top 400
- RotoProspects: #116 on Top 500
Warnings
There were concerns about him before the draft, which is why he fell to 1.11 even though some folks thought he was the best high school hitter in the country. A year he just had in 2022 won’t quell the naysayers, but the injury is the key data point that season.
So yes, we need to see him healthy and on the field and dominating A-ball in 2023, and then finish the year at High-A. That means we won’t get a good Double-A sample until 2024, and that’s when we get a real measure of the man.
In short, we simply don’t have enough data to draw firm conclusions.
Another warning? His injury in 2022 was due to back strain. That often follows a player through his career.
Conclusion
He’s athletic, but a bit stiff at his 6’4″ size, and a lot of folks suggest 3B is his future home.
If he comes back healthy and shows those good bat skills again, he will be a good prospect. He’s already Top 100, but there was a time when some thought Top 10. Not now, not until he proves it again.
But even a Top 100 talent has value, and that Rookie level performance is tantalizing. Power with good bat skills are nice to have.
But maybe the Diamondbacks knew what they were doing when they passed on the “best high school hitter in the country” and selected Jordan Lawlar instead?