A consensus Top-5 prospect, but not my kind of prospect is Mr. Elly De La Cruz.
- Born: January 11, 2002
- B/T: Both/Right
- 6’5″, 200-lbs
- Signed by the Cincinnati Reds in 2018 out of the Dominican Republic
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
He spent his last teenage season at Rookie and A ball, and the power that make the scouts drool is very much in evidence. He really produced at Rookie ball, but did not do as well in A ball.
So in 2022 he starts in High-A, and now he speed is very evident and the power is still real. He does well, then goes to Double-A with power and speed intact.
What is my problem then? Well, see those K% and BB% columns? See how striking out almost a third of the time and not walking enough leads to OBP that jumps up and down? The power is real. The speed is real. The roto potential of this profile is dead obvious, but you’re going to have to trust the BA won’t hurt you when major league pitchers are striking him out 33% or 34% of the time.
Monthly Splits
There you see the OBP problem. There are going to be months (such as June and August) when he goes on a heater and you’ll love having him on your roster. Then there will be the occasional Aprils and Julys when just the speed and power are your friends.
He will be streaky, I’m saying.
Handedness K% and BB%
A+ (vs RH): 29%K and 7%BB. (vs LH): 34%K and 10%BB.
AA (vs RH): 31%K and 9%BB. (vs LH): 30%K and 5%BB.
Fairly consistent either way.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: #6 on their Top 400
- Fantrax: #3 on their Top 400
- RotoProspects: #3 on Top 500
Warnings
Just the batting eye. If he could consistently cut the strikeouts down, he’d be a Top-5 prospect for me as well.
Conclusion
Power and speed is a nice combo. I won’t object if you trade for him.
But I’ll look for power and speed and bat skills.