A pitcher the Reds acquired from Seattle as part of the Luis Castillo deal, what do we know about Levi Stoudt?
- Born: December 4, 1997
- B/T: Right/Right
- 6’1″, 195-lbs
- Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft from Lehigh University
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
Stoudt began his professional career at High-A and did just fine other than the elevated walk rate. He got bumped up to Double-A and did about the same.
He began his 2022 season repeating his time at Double-A Arkansas, and while the walks got cut almost in half, his strikeouts also dropped. We’re seeing the K%-BB% rate inch slightly higher each time.
Then he gets traded to Cincinnati, and those those glorious five innings he pitches in Double-A Chattanooga, everything is sunshine and rainbows. He faced 16 batters, struck out five of them, walked none, looks all green.
Then he gets a promotion to Triple-A and all the bad habits return. The strikeout rate craters, the walk rate is as bad as ever, it’s not pretty.
AA: He struck out 21% of RHB and walked 4%. He struck out 34% of LHB and walked 9%.
AAA: He struck out 25% of RHB and walked 3%. He struck out 12% of LHB and walked 21%.
So at Double-A he strikes out more lefties, but walks more of them too. Then at Triple-A he strikes out more righties, but walks every fifth lefty he faces. Small sample size oddities.
What’s yer report, FanGraphs?
Stoudt was a small school prospect with mid-90s arm strength and a good changeup who fell during his draft year due to a looming Tommy John surgery. He and the Mariners used his rehab period to rework the shape of his slider, of which Stoudt has developed ultra-consistent, almost robotic glove-side command. He has similar letter-high command of his mid-90s fastball, which doesn’t have huge life. He’s going to feast on the hitters who struggle to get on top of pitches in that area, but his fastball isn’t so explosive that it will blow past everyone up there. This causes Stoudt to have to pitch backwards and nibble with his slider a lot, and the need to do so funnels him into a multi-inning relief role projection. While he will show you the occasional curveball and changeup, his new arm stroke doesn’t allow him to create the same bat-missing action on his change, further pushing him towards the ‘pen. He’s reached and had success as a starter up through Double-A, putting him in position to seize a 40-man spot after the season. Stoudt may begin his big league career as a short-outing starter and shift to the bullpen as his options dwindle. He was at Double-A Arkansas prior to the trade and is likely to be the first prospect from this swap to make his major league debut.
FanGraphs, July 2022
The Scouts
- Rotowire: Not on their Top 400
- Fantrax: Not on their Top 400
- Fantasy Six Pack: Not on their Fantasy Baseball Prospect Top 407
- Imaginary Brick Wall: #939 on their Top 1,000+
Warnings
The walks are concerning.
He doesn’t have a dominant fastball, so he pitches “backwards” — leading with his secondaries. He does have a nice changeup, but will that be enough at the hightest levels?
Conclusion
Stoudt had a nice time when first traded, then everything backed up at Triple-A. My guess is he will start 2023 there, but be up in the majors as soon as he shows even some success. He will be 25 next spring, and with a role in the bullpen as an opportunity, we should see him in Cincinnati by next summer.