Until he separated his shoulder, Colt Keith was having a fine season. Let’s meet Mr. Keith.
- Born: August 14, 2001
- B/T: Left/Right
- 6’3″, 211-lbs
- Drafted by the Detroit Tigers in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft from Biloxi High School
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
The most encouraging part of this chart is comparing the tail end of his 2021 to his 2022, for they were at the same level. Whereas he tailed off at the end of 2021, it’s important to remember he was still a teenager at the time playing against guys who were, on average, 3.5 years older than him.
So in 2022 he repeats High-A and we see improvement almost across the board. Now the potential power is turning into game power, he is getting on base at a .370 clip (and hitting .301 to boot), with excellent bat control. In fact, he draws walks period, if anything too much if his lack of production in 2021 High-A was an indicator.
2022 was the season that solidified his standing as a genuine batting prospect.
Then he injured his shoulder (no surgery needed, just rest), which explains his stopping at High-A in June:
Another encouraging chart, with his OBP and ISO and speed and walk rate climbing month by month. He clearly will see Double-A in 2023.
As as LHB, he struck out 19% of the time and walked 11% of the time against RHP.
As as LHB, he struck out 22% of the time and walked 7% of the time against LHP.
As you can see, he was certainly more productive against right-handers, but he wasn’t hopeless against lefties either, and in fact showed good bat control against them, and still got on base at a .317 rate.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: #77 on their Top 400
- Fantrax: #99 on their Top 400
- RotoProspects: #126 on their Dynasty Top 500
Warnings
He had that freak injury sliding into second when his shoulder separated. They prescribed rest, not surgery, so he should be fine, but we just have to wait and see.
He hasn’t hit Double-A yet, though he certainly would have were it not for that injury.
Conclusion
As a prospect, Keith has no real weaknesses. We wanted to see the power, and this year showed the power. He always had good bat control, has speed, gets on base. He plays fine at 3B as well.
He’s the kind of prospect who would have been on a Top 100 list had he not had his injury. Good buy low candidate. [UPDATE Feb. 17th, 2023: As you see, he is now a Top 100 prospect despite the injury-shortened season.]