This past week I posted a Twitter poll asking who my followers would prefer long term: Mason Black or Cade Povich. The results were clear:
Let’s see why the results were so clear.
- Born: April 12, 2000
- B/T: Left/Left
- 6’3″, 185-lbs
- Drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft from University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
Other than a few more walks early this season while still in the Twins organization, Povich’s walk rate is fine. He doesn’t have top-notch control, but it’s workable. The Ks are very nice, and even when the WHIP creeps up, the K%-BB% is still in good territory.
The 40 grade from FanGraphs tells us they think he has good skills and a good change to remain a starting pitcher.
Let’s break down his year by month:
Lost a bit of control in mid-to-late spring, and the Ks were coming down as we neared summer.
Then the calendar switched to July and all was well in his world. He gets traded to Baltimore, and in his two starts with the new organization he’s done nothing to make them regret the deal.
Against RHB he struck out 32% while walking 7%.
Against LHB he struck out 34% while walking 9%.
As you see from the WHIP, the only time he struggles, it’s against lefties, and a K-BB% rate of 25% is struggling the way Aaron Judge struggles to hit home runs.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: #349 on their Top 400
- Fantrax: Not on their Top 400
- Fantasy Six Pack: Not on their Fantasy Baseball Prospect Top 498
- Imaginary Brick Wall: Not on their Top 472
Warnings
He has yet to see Double-A, and that will be a good test.
The command needs to be more consistent for him to have sustained success.
Conclusion
His velocity is rising as he grows into his frame, and as you see he has room to continue growing. He already has a great curve, and a decent FB. How his secondary pitches develop will determine how his future path lays out for him.
The Orioles saw something in this kid that made them realize they wanted him in their organization. So did my Twitter followers.
Who am I to argue with that?