Cade Povich, LHP, MIN

Lots of interesting arms from the 2021 draft are making themselves known, including Cade Povich.

Video courtesy of Keith Southworth
  • Born: April 12, 2000
  • B/T: Left/Left
  • 6’3″, 185-lbs
  • Drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft from University of Nebraska

The Numbers

His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:

After being drafted as a starter at Nebraska in 2021, the Twins barely used him the rest of the year. Still a nifty line for as little as he did pitch.

2022 is our solid look at this third-rounder. His K% are fantastic at 32%, his walks are just fine at 6%, and any time you see a K-BB% north of 20%, you are seeing a pitcher dominate batters. He has been giving up hits (High-A batters are hitting .229 against him, and before you scoff, have you seen what MLB averages are like these days?), so his WHIP is not pristine, but still plenty good.

As a lefty, Povich finds more success against RHB, and that’s hardly unusual. A 3-to-1 K-to-BB ratio against lefties is still fine, though hardly the 9-to-1 ratio he has against righties.

Basically if he were only facing lefties, he’d be a #5 SP. If he were only facing righties, he’d be a #2.

So let’s have FanGraphs break down Povich:

OK, so his fastball velocity has already reached the mid-90s (plenty for a LHP), and he has a plus curve already, and the makings of a slider as his third pitch.

Remember, this FanGraphs article came out in March, and all of Covich’s High-A success came after they wrote the above. Suffice to say, they’d still be on the starter bandwagon with Povich.

At only 185 pounds while standing 6’3″, Povich has the frame to put on more muscle pounds and with it even more velocity.

The Scouts

Warnings

Scouts tend to focus on the #1, #2, or #3 SP prospects. Understandably, but #4 and #5 prospects still have value.

He hasn’t faced Double-A batters yet, but I’m sure that will come by summer if not sooner.

Conclusion

If he reaches Double-A in 2022, and Triple-A in 2023, that’s also the year I’d expect to see him with the Twins. Maybe a back-of-the-rotation arm by spring 2024?

He’s not an ace, and no one expects him to be. But a major league arm in the starting rotation? FanGraphs sees it, and so do I.