A top prospect who is missing one thing in his skill set that would take him to the next level
- Born: November 10, 1999
- B/T: Right/Right
- 6’3″, 205-lbs
- Drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft from Magnolia HS (Magnolia, TX)
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
So I’m building out the spreadsheet with his numbers, and the cells are popping up green and blue and red, and then there’s this solid column of yellow that just stares at me. Jordan Groshans has had three productive seasons (his 2019’s was cut short from injury). He never strikes out too much, and he draws plenty of walks, and he gets on base at a great rate. His wRC+ looks great. Shame about the speed (spoiler: there is none), but at least he has power, right?
Right?
Well, in three seasons of play — 547 total ABs — he has hit 14 home runs. His Hard Hit % in 2021 was 22.7% and that’s poor. The guy simply doesn’t show power.
But the scouts love him, so they are counting on his power developing, and it’s true that he was drafted out of high school and played as a teenager until 2021. If he went to college he’d be drafted in July of 2022 and we would be very forgiving of this new draftee just getting his feet under him.
I will say, I love his bat control a lot. Don’t have to teach him the strike zone, he lives in it.
Holy cow, that’s a nice split! OK, his power is not quite as good against lefties, but man, this guy will get on base against anyone.
This chart doesn’t include the 7 home runs he hit in 2021, but we definitely see his pull power, with just a little hint of opposite field power.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: #42 on their Top 400
- Fantrax: #109 on their Top 400
- Fantasy Six Pack: #222 on their dynasty Top 1,000+
- Imaginary Brick Wall: #56 on their Top 473
Warnings
Not much. I mean, the guy skipped right over High-A in the lost year of 2020, and it simply didn’t matter. He played a full season at Double-A and almost hit .300.
The only thing we are waiting on is his power. The scouts think it’s a matter of time, and last year he was at mid-teen HR power if he had 500+ ABs, and the scouts think he will settle into the 20-HR level eventually.
Conclusion
Want a guy with enough power to keep the pitchers honest, but one who has a fantastic eye and can get on base and move the runners over? Groshans is your man. With a full-season at Double-A already, he’ll likely start 2022 at Triple-A and then see him in the big leagues later in 2022 or early in 2023.
Scouts think he’s more likely to wind up at 3B, but he can play SS too, and the versatility to play either corner or middle infielder will help him reach the majors. I could see Groshans as the Blue Jays’ 3B as soon as next season. Just be patient on the power.