Another Pittsburgh Pirate prospect, Matt Fraizer had himself quite a spiffy year, so why aren’t more scouts putting him high on their lists? Let’s find out…
- Born: January 12, 1998
- B/T: Left/Right
- 6’3″, 217-lbs
- Drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft from the University of Arizona (Tucson)
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
All season long I’ve run across guys like this who did little in 2019 and then exploded in 2021, and I wonder what their lost 2020 might have looked like. A blending of the two?
One thing is certain: you wind Fraizer up and he will strike out 22% of the time. Any level, any year, he gives up his quota of strikeouts and then says:
So let’s look at that power outburst a bit more closely:
OK, now we see he destroyed Greensboro pitching, got promoted to Altoona and then found himself putting up good — not great — numbers the rest of the way. Part of the scout hesitation is that it’s fine to obliterate High-A as a 23-year-old, but you’d really like to see him do it in Double-A too. A .204 ISO is very fine, but it’s not .264 fine, you get what I’m saying?
Still, he did his usual strikeout thing in both places, and drew walks in both places, but the speed came to a sudden halt in Altoona.
In High-A he was better against lefties.
In Double-A he was better against righties.
In both places, and against both types of pitchers, he did well. No sign of a platoon here yet.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: #182 on their Top 400
- BaseballHQ: Not on their Top 100
- Fangraphs: Not on their Top 133
- Fantasy Six Pack: Not on their dynasty baseball rankings
- Imaginary Brick Wall: Not on the Top 473
- Fantrax: #227 on the Top 250
- PARSlist: 60.0 on the PARS list (just barely a major league regular)
Warnings
The scouts aren’t too high on him.
He did well at Double-A, but it would be nice to see him start 2022 on a tear at that level. The scouts would scurry to line up behind him then, you betcha!
But if he doesn’t, then the 60.0 on PARS gives us a clue that maybe he makes it as a major leaguer, but only just. Hey, it’s possible either way.
Conclusion
If you were one of those who picked him up while he was laying waste to High-A, this may be a wake-up call: not all hot-hitting 23-year-olds keep it up as they move to the next level.
If you were one of those who picked him up and then later dropped him (🙋♂️), well, this was the reason you dropped him: he’s good, but didn’t stand out all that much at Double-A. Until he does, he’s not a top prospect.
If he does, I’ll be😞 for me, happy for him.