Called up this week to be the extra man for a doubleheader, 23-year-old Alex Kirilloff made his major league regular season debut starting in LF. What can we expect of Alex once he gets his regular chance in the majors?
- Born: November 9, 1997
- B/T: Left/Left
- 6’2″, 195-lbs
- Drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft from Plum HS (Pittsburgh)
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
He got off to a bang in 2018 with lots of great numbers across the board. In particular note his low K% rate, an excellent sign for a young hitter.
In 2019 he had a wrist injury that kept him out for a bit at the start of the year, and it probably cost him some power as we saw. His K% was still good, his Hard Hit rate was solid and the walks held as he climbed to Double-A
In spring training 2021, he had limited action and didn’t overwhelm with results.
He faced RHP about twice as often as he faced LHP, and he certainly put up better numbers against the righties.
Here’s that tale of two seasons in visual form. In 2018 he was killing it. In 2019 he was delayed by that injury, then struggled upon his return, before doing better in the second half before a late season fade.
But note where his career average OPS sits: .863, an elite level.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: #11 on their Top 400.
- BaseballHQ: #18 on their Top 100.
- Fangraphs: #58 on their Top 133.
- ​Fantasy Six Pack: #161 on their dynasty list.
- Imaginary Brick Wall: #25 on the Top 473.
- Fantrax: #13 on the Top 250.
Warnings
He’s had injuries.
Conclusion
He’s a top prospect. Until this year he hadn’t gone above Double-A, so the fact that he’s knocking on the door of the majors as a 23-year-old with limited minor league experience tells you what the team thinks of his prospects.
There’s talk that he might wind up at 1B, but he’s expected to have the power to play there if that eventually happens.
The way he distinguished balls and strikes as a 20-year-old in the lower minors tells you he has a great hit tool. He showed power before his injuries, so the scouts expect him to show it again. In 2020, reports from the alternate site were excellent, with power to all fields.
So yeah, he’s a top prospect. Just give him time (and health, please!)