As I write this, 26-year-old Bobby Dalbec is hitting .300/.382/.833 in 34 PA in spring training. He had 92 PA in 2020, and is about to lose prospect status. What do the Red Sox have in this first baseman who looks to open the season batting ninth?
- Born: June 29, 1995
- B/T: Right/Right
- 6’4″, 227-lbs
- Drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft from University of Arizona
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
Lots of green, and a couple of very ugly reds there.
Clearly he has power: his ISO can get otherworldly at times, he hits the ball very hard, and he draws walks to help boost his OBP to acceptable levels.
Why acceptable? Look at that strikeout rate! When you strike out a third of time (or more), getting on base needs those walks. Dalbec will give you power, but if you expect more than a .250 BA, look again at his history.
No big split noticed here, other than he does a bit better against LHP, but his BA will never be great against anyone.
Where do you want your home runs? He’ll put ’em where you want ’em. Some of those HRs are no-doubters. Good luck shifting against Dalbec!
With all those ups and downs, I want you to notice that the very, very low point is just below a .600 OPS, and most of the time he lives north of .800, and sometimes in the very penthouses of power.
But do notice those ups and downs. He’ll be streaky.
- Rotowire: #151 on their Top 400.
- BaseballHQ: #91 on their Top 100.
- Fangraphs: Not on their Top 133.
- Fantasy Six Pack: #210 on their dynasty list.
- Imaginary Brick Wall: #77 on the Top 473.
- Fantrax: #105 on the Top 250.
Oh, those strikeouts (hide your eyes, kids)!
His batting average will be minimal.
He’s a slugger, all right. He can give you a lot of home runs, and draw enough walks to make it work in OBP leagues. But in BA leagues, think hard about that power, and if it will give you enough to justify the hit in batting average.