Anthony Kay reached the majors in 2019. Will he stick in the rotation?
- Born: March 21, 1995
- B/T: L/L
- 6’0″, 218-lbs
- Drafted by the New York Mets in the 1st round of the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft from University of Connecticut (Storrs, CT)
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
The command isn’t best, and the strikeouts are only acceptable, so this is not a top pitching prospect, but he certainly climbed levels fast and put up decent enough numbers.
Let’s break down his 2019 by level:
Yes, we see what happened. He started at AA and did very well, other than walking a few too many.
Then he moved to AAA, saw his numbers regress a bit, then he got traded. Then in AAA for Toronto, his numbers regressed some more, other than his walk rate suddenly being acceptable.
Then he was called up to the majors, and in 14 innings he put up middling numbers.
But let’s not bury the lede here: He started the season at AA for the first time, and finished in the Toronto rotation. That’s a successful year any way you look at it.
Righties hit him harder overall.
We see his 3-pitch mix here, enough to keep him as a starter.
Nice mix of velocity between the three pitches, with little overlap between them.
Up and down it goes, and where it stops, nobody knows…
2019 was a decent year overall, though he faded late. However, note that his career K-BB% average is only in fair territory, nothing dominating.
His curve ball is clearly his best offering, his one true plus pitch. His fastball and changeup are average offerings.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: Not on their Top 400.
- BaseballHQ: Not on their Top 100.
- Fangraphs: Not on their Top 120.
- Fantasy Six Pack: Not on their dynasty list.
- Prospects365: #169 on Ray Butler’s Top 200.
- Imaginary Brick Wall: #271 on the Top 487.
- Fantrax: Not on the Top 250.
Warnings
He’s not the type of pitcher to dominate, either in strikeout rate or in WHIP.
With all the arms Toronto has, Kay is likely to continue in AAA for a bit.
Conclusion
With a bit more AAA seasoning, Anthony Kay should be ready to take his place in a major league rotation. Granted it’s only as a #4 starter at the best, but teams need guys to take innings and put up decent numbers.