Not enough numbers to work with, but oh those scouting reports!
- Born: April 17, 2001
- B/T: R/R
- 6’3″, 225-lbs
- Drafted by the New York Mets in the 3rd round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur draft from Seminole HS (Sanford, FL)
The Numbers
His raw numbers are listed above courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Let’s aggregate by year then focus on the important numbers for minor leaguers:
OK, first of all, we only have 10 innings to work with, so there’s a limit to what we can gather from those 45 batters faced.
We can certainly see that he walked 5 of those 45, but then he was 18 years old in his first taste of professional ball, and if he had only walked 4 his BB% would have dipped below 10%, so let’s not quibble too much.
He certainly struck out plenty of batters, and that’s the thing we will take from his small sample site: he dominated from the start.
Again, not enough data to draw any conclusions. He gave up some hits.
And there those hits are, just to show you how absurd the sample size is. Uh oh, all his doubles are to right field . . . all two of them! Heh, who cares?
Now we’re cookin’. Matt Allan would have been drafted higher than the 3rd round if teams hadn’t been scared off by his price and his commit to the University of Florida.
There’s some risk with drafting high school pitchers, but if ever you are going to do so, this is the prototype of the guy you should draft. At 6’3″, 225 you don’t have to hope he grows into his frame — he is already there. With two plus pitches (FB, Curve that could become a double-plus 11-to-5 offering), you don’t have to hope he develops some plus pitches — he is already there. With a decent changeup as his third pitch, you don’t have to hope he develops a third pitch to remain a starter — he is already there.
This is one high school pitcher who could move quickly.
The Scouts
- Rotowire: #155 on their Top 400.
- BaseballHQ: Not on their Top 100.
- Fangraphs: Not on their Top 120.
- Fantasy Six Pack: #654 on their dynasty list.
- Prospects365: Not on Ray Butler’s Top 200.
- Imaginary Brick Wall: #178 on the Top 487.
- Fantrax: #170 on the Top 250.
Warnings
He’s only 19 and hasn’t reached full-season A ball, so let’s wait to see him tackle that and AA before we get too excited.
Was his small-sample elevated walk rate just a small sample size mirage, or will he have an issue with control?
Conclusion
As I say in my book, if a pitcher has two plus pitches, one average pitch, and average command, that’s a #2 starter. Matt Allan has the potential to be just that.
Listen to the scouts and give less weight to the numbers until we have more data: buy Matt Allan shares now!